Who will be the new pope? Clock ticking down toward historic conclave

Numerous Roman Catholic cardinals started arriving at the Vatican on Tuesday, the day before they enter a secluded conclave to select a pontiffto replace Pope Francis, a beloved figure whose 12-year reign ended with his death April 21 at age 88.

Francis sought to make the church welcoming and inclusive. He eased rules on annulments and remarriage within the church and allowed priests to bless same-sex marriages. Some Catholics believe he went too far − including Cardinal Raymond Burke, who was raised on a Midwest dairy farm and blamed Francis' efforts for “confusion, error and division" within the church.

Now the gathering of 133 voting cardinals must decide whether to continue in the direction of Francis or elect a pope likely to choose a more traditional path for the church: A pope willing to confront world leaders in defense of the marginalized or a pope who confines his commentary to strictly church matters.

Cardinal Robert McElroy, archbishop of Washington, D.C., called the conclave process "profound and mysterious," and said of any possible favorites to succeed Francis: "I can give you no insights into who is ahead.''

Francis made history as the first pope from Latin America. There has never been one from the U.S. and the next one is also likely to hail from elsewhere.

Once a pope is elected and accepts, he enters the "Room of Tears" next to the Sistine Chapel, where he dons the white papal vestments for the first time.

Will we see the first American pope? How USA's image could come into play

How will the voting for pope take place?

Here are the specifics of the voting process, according to the Vatican:

Each cardinal writes the name of his chosen candidate on a ballot, folds it, holds it aloft and carries it to the altar in order of rank. The cardinal places the ballot on a plate covering a chalice and says, in Italian: “I call as my witness Christ the Lord, who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one whom I believe should be elected according to God."

Get the Israel-Hamas Warnewsletter in your inbox.

The latest news as the fight between Israel and Hamas escalates.

Delivery: Varies

Your Email

The cardinal then uses the plate to drop the vote into the chalice, bows to the altar and returns to his seat. Cardinals who are unable to walk give their folded ballot to a "scrutineer," who follows the same procedure without reciting the oath again.

Any cardinals who are too ill to be in the chapel are given ballots and a sealed box with a slit where the folded ballots can be inserted. Once the votes are cast, the "infirmarii" bring the box back to the chapel, where it is opened in front of the electors. The votes are counted and added to those already in the main chalice.

LGBTQ+ advocacy group expects compromise candidate will be elected

Francis DeBernardo, executive director of New Ways Ministry, a national Catholic outreach group advocating for LGBTQ+ acceptance and equity, says he expects the next pope will be a compromise candidate.

DeBernardo, in an statement issued Tuesday, said some cardinals have been vocal in their opposition to Francis' leadership of the church and that he expects "vigorous debate" in the conclave about Pope Francis' legacy of including migrants, LGBTQ+ people, prisoners and others on the margins, instead of strictly emphasizing church teachings.

But he said Francis' inclusive approach would be hard for the next pope to abandon. DeBernardo said Catholic numbers diminished in Europe and the U.S. during the papacies of John Paul II and Benedict XVI.

"Pope Francis' inclusive welcome of everybody brought Catholics back to the fold and appealed to new members as well," he said. "These successful results will certainly appeal to the voting cardinals."

What is the timeline for the conclave?

The Vatican released a timeline for the conclave. There will be a Mass on Wednesday morning, then at 3:45 p.m. local time − 9:45 a.m. ET − the cardinals will be transported from Casa Santa Marta, where they are being housed, to the Apostolic Palace "in choir dress" before entering the conclave. After swearing an oath to fulfill St. Peter's mission if elected pope, the cardinals may hold the first vote in the evening. 

On Thursday at 8:15 a.m. local time − 2:15 a.m. ET − the cardinals will celebrate Mass in the Pauline Chapel. There will then be a midmorning prayer in the Sistine Chapel and voting will be held. It is possible the white smoke signaling election of a pope could come out as early as 10:30 a.m. local time − 4:30 a.m. ET − that day.

At the conclusion of the votes, there were will an evening prayer before the cardinals return to Santa Marta at 7:30 p.m. local time − 1:30 p.m. ET. If the multiple votes scheduled for that day fail to result in someone receiving a two-thirds majority, they will return for more voting Friday and as many days as needed to elect a pontiff.

Cardinals call for peace on eve of conclave

More than 170 cardinals, including those who will elect the new pope, gathered Tuesday for prayer and to discuss a wide range of issues ahead of the conclave. Climate change, economic issues and efforts to promote peace in war-torn countries were among the topics, the Vatican said.

"The theme of communion was emphasized as a calling for the new pope to be a pontifex, a builder of bridges, a shepherd, a master of humanity and the face of a Samaritan Church," the Vatican said in a statement.

Cardinals drawing attention ahead of conclave vote

Italy has provided 217 of the 266 popes, and some Italians are among a long list of cardinals considered strong contenders. They include Matteo Zuppi, 69, a close associate of Francis; Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican Secretary of State who is considered a moderate; and Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, an Italian who served the church in Jerusalem for more than a decade and whose relative youth could work against him.

Some top contenders from outside Italy include Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, a liberal sometimes referred to as "Francis 2;" Peter Erdo, 72, of Hungary, who is considered a favorite among the more conservative cardinals; and Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 76, of Ghana, who would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa.

A battle for the soul of the Church: What's at stake in conclave this week

How long will the conclave take?

The conclave will continue until a pope is elected. One vote is expected the first day, then two each morning and two each afternoon until a candidate claims the two-thirds majority. The ballots are burned after each vote; black smoke emits from the Sistine Chapel chimney when the vote fails to select a pope. White smoke means the decision has been made.

If the electors fail to reach an agreement after three days, a break of up to one day is allowed "for prayer, free discussion among voters and a brief spiritual exhortation."

There is no set time limit for the conclave, but recent conclaves have lasted only a few days. 

Betting odds rise for one favorite: Who will be the next pope?

A conclave unlike any other

Though Francis didn’t make any major changes to the conclave itself, his outreach to what he called “the peripheries’’ left an imprint. A record 108 of the 133 voting cardinals were appointed by Francis, more than 80%. For the first time in memory, Europeans make up less than 50% of the voting cardinals. And more than two dozen cardinal electors are from countries that have never voted for a pope, among them Rwanda, Myanmar and South Sudan, according to the Washington Post.

“There are now many cardinals from Asia and North Africa who are potential popes," said Massimo Faggioli, a professor of theology and religious studies at Villanova University. "That makes it different than it has been for many centuries.”

This year's conclave: How papal pick gathering is different this year

How does the pope choose a name?

Each new pope, once chosen by a conclave of the College of Cardinals, can take on a new name, one infused with meaning, history and tradition. When Jorge Bergoglio ascended to the papacy 12 years ago, he chose to become Pope Francis in honor of St. Francis of Assisi, a 13th century friar who rejected his family's wealth and went to live, minister and work among the poor.

Other popes have chosen names that reflected their own values, their own heritage or their own heroes.

St. Peter was the first pope, one of the 12 apostles and the man Catholics believe was ordained by Jesus himself. Petros is Greek for "stone" or "rock." According to the Gospel of Matthew, Jesus said to the apostle who had been known as Simon, "Thou art Peter, and upon this rock I will build my church."