How Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctine’ could backfire in midterm fight on economy
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Read morePresident Donald Trump's push to seize Venezuela's oil and his broader foreign agenda are drawing criticism that the focus on overseas interventions may hurt his party's chances in the 2026 midterm elections, where voters remain primarily concerned about the economy and cost of living.
WASHINGTON ‒ Even before the United States seized control of Venezuela and ousted its leader, some of President Donald Trump's allies worried he was giving too much attention abroad while Americans made clear their top concern was the economy and cost of living at home.
Now, after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Trump is already talking about other foreign objectives.
Trump says the United States will "run" Venezuela and tap the country's vast oil supply. He now has warned that Cuba is on the verge of collapsing next, threatened military intervention in Colombia and renewed his call for the United States to seize Greenland, which is part of Denmark. He has even given his aggressive intervention in the Western Hemisphere a name, the "Donroe Doctrine," a rebranding of the early 19th century's Monroe Doctrine.
Add it all up and it risks undercutting Trump's push to regain Americans' trust on the economy by handing Democrats a new line for the midterm elections: namely, that Trump and Republicans are fixated on oil and American imperialism rather than on the checking accounts of rank-and-file U.S. citizens.
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"The American people reject the possibility of another unjustified foreign war that seems to be on the horizon because of Trump's desire to reward Big Oil in the United Sates of America ‒ while continuing to not do a damn thing to make life better for the American people," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Jan. 5.
The White House has argued the military's operation Jan. 3 demonstrated the power of the United States abroad. Trump officials have also worked to put Democrats on defense by emphasizing that Maduro's leadership was widely condemned by both parties. President Joe Biden had placed a $25 million bounty on Maduro for information leading to his arrest.
Trump has routinely slammed the concept of nation-building and criticized his predecessors for entangling the United States in foreign affairs. Yet the president rejected any suggestion that the action in Venezuela betrays his mantra of "America first," arguing that seizing Venezuelan oil is crucial for American interests.
"We want to surround ourselves with energy," Trump said at his initial news conference on the Venezuela operation. "We have tremendous energy in that country. It's very important that we protect it. We need that for ourselves. We need that for the world."
A new poll from Reuters/Ipsos, however, found that only 1 in 3 Americans approve of the U.S. military strike on Venezuela and that 72% worry the United States will become too involved in the country. Just 23% of independent voters, a voting block that will be crucial to the outcome of the midterm races, said they support the action in Venezuela.
Democrats seize on Maduro ouster to bolster affordability case
Meanwhile, Gallup found Trump's approval rating stood at 36% in December, with only 24% of Americans saying they are satisfied with the state of the economy. Fifty-seven percent of Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy, according to a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll last month.
"The American public does not want their boys and girls from Florida, from Nebraska, from Arizona to go fight for Big Oil," Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Arizona, said Jan. 5 on MS NOW's "Morning Joe." "That's not what the last election was about," the senator added, referring to Trump's 2024 campaign promise to bring down costs on Day One.
"How is that going to bring the cost of living down?" Gallego asked. "How is that going to help me buy a house? How is that going to help my kid who just graduated college get a job?"
Former Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown seized on Trump's attack on Venezuela in his campaign to return to the Senate after losing his reelection bid in 2024.
"Hundreds of thousands of Ohioans are struggling to make ends meet, yet Washington continues to make their lives harder while prioritizing foreign countries before our own," Brown posted on X. "Ohioans are facing higher costs across the board and are desperate for leadership that will help deliver relief. We should be more focused on improving the lives of Ohioans – not Caracas."
Democrats used affordability as their underlying campaign message en route to overperforming in special House elections across the country in 2025 and producing double-digit wins in off-year gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. It's expected to be the centerpiece of Democrats' message in the 2026 midterm races as they look to take control of the House and Senate.
"The economy, and particularly inflation and the growth of the economy, are still likely to be the dominant issues," said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republicans strategist and president of North Star Opinion Research. "But whether that indeed occurs depends upon how these other foreign interventions work out. If you end up in a shooting war with some other country, it's going to be very different."
Ayres said Democrats will try to make the argument that Trump is distracted by his administration's ventures in Venezuela and beyond, "but if the inflation comes down and the economy gets going, that's not going to work."
'You have so much ammunition,' Trump tells Republicans
Americans' gloomy outlook on the economy ‒ despite inflation being down from the post-pandemic peak under Biden ‒ prompted Trump to kick off a speaking tour in December that began with rallies in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Trump has called affordability a "hoax" pushed by Democrats because they are the ones to blame, he said, for soaring inflation during Biden's presidency.
In an 84-minute address to House Republicans at a party retreat Jan. 6 in Washington, Trump touted a record-high stock market, strengthening 401(k) retirement plans and his efforts to bring down the price of drugs through a new "most favored nation" policy. Trump also urged Republicans to run on tax cuts and other measures in his "One Big Beautiful Bill" law that passed last year.
"You have so much ammunition. All you have to do is sell it," Trump told his Republican allies. "You've got to win the midterms. Because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be ‒ they'll find a reason to impeach me. I'll get impeached."
If Trump's efforts for American businesses to take control of Venezuelan oil prove successful and energy prices decrease in the United States, Trump could argue his intervention directly improved the lives of Americans.
Yet Trump also pointed to the long history of the party of a sitting president often losing midterm races, calling it an "amazing phenomenon" in his remarks to House Republicans. He also acknowledged his sagging poll numbers.
"I wish you could explain to me what the hell's going on with the mind of the public, because we have the right policy," Trump said to the crowd at the Kennedy Center. "They don't," he added, referring to Democrats. "They have horrible policy."
But it remains to be seen whether most Americans will agree with him on Venezuela. Before her dramatic falling-out with Trump, Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose resignation from Congress became official Jan. 5, was among Trump's allies last year who urged the president to spend less time meeting with foreign leaders to focus more on domestic policy.
"This is what many in MAGA thought they voted to end," Greene said in a post in X after Maduro's capture, criticizing Trump for focusing on regime change in another nation "while Americans are consistently facing increasing cost of living, housing, healthcare, and learn about scams and fraud of their tax dollars."
Veteran Democratic pollster John Anzalone said no one in America woke up on Jan. 3 saying: "Man, super-concerned with Venezuela. I really hope that Trump does something about it." Instead, Anzalone said, Americans conveyed just the opposite in the several focus groups he conducted before the end of 2025: "They wish he would just focus on the economy.
"I think that you will have that even heightened today ‒ that he's playing army instead of focusing on their struggle, and it's where he will lose people."
Anzalone, chief pollster of Biden's 2020 campaign, compared Trump's situation to the disconnect Biden struggled with during his one term in office as Trump's Democratic predecessor touted economic gains while Americans expressed economic frustrations.
"Trump is getting in Joe Biden territory here, and that's a problem for him."
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