California 'jungle' primary could hand governor's race to Republicans
- 6 hours ago
- 3 min read
California’s jungle primary has left the governor’s race open to a possible Republican victory as the two leading GOP candidates, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, are ahead of a fragmented field of eight Democrats, while incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom remains neutral and has not endorsed a successor.
Democrats' 2026 comeback could be spoiled by California electing a Republican governor as two GOP candidates lead in recent polls.
Experts forecast a potential "blue wave" in the midterm elections. Democrats have recently overperformed in special elections, including flipping a state senate seat in President Donald Trump's own Palm Beach, Florida, district March 24.
But the party could face a nightmare scenario in the nation's most populous state, where polling shows Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Biancoleading the pack in the June 2 nonpartisan primary. The state's liberal majority is split among eight Democratic contenders.
The Democrats' concern stems from California's unusual election system, in which the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the November general election. A Berkley ISG survey released March 18 of more than 5,000 registered voters showed Hilton, a conservative TV host, receiving 17% of the vote, and Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, held 16%.
In third was Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell with 14%, then former Rep. Katie Porter holding 13%, followed by Tom Steyer at 10% and the five other Democratic candidates each with 5% or less.
Other yardsticks show a similar trend, such as a March 18 survey commissioned by the California Democratic Party showing the two GOP candidates on top with Swalwell, Porter and Steyer in a three-way tie for third.
California Democrats enjoy a 2-to-1 voter registration edge over the GOP, but Golden State voters say there is a fog of confusion around the race because of the party's failure to coalesce around a front-runner. Olivya Reyes, a graduate student who lives in Oxnard, told USA TODAY the party still feels as if it is trying to "find its footing" between a more moderate or progressive candidate.
"I feel like as a Democratic voter, what I would want to see from my party is clarity on who we're supporting and getting behind," she said.
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is prevented from running because of term limits, has one eye on the presidency and hasn't endorsed a successor or publicly nudged lower-performing candidates out of the race.
That neutrality could come at a cost, some experts say, should the two GOP aspirants prevail.
'Nobody has leapt out': Voters disengaged, largely unenthusiastic
Reyes, 29, a lifelong Democrat, said that typically by the end of March she would have a strong idea of which candidate she planned to support. She had planned to back former Vice President Kamala Harris or Sen. Alex Padilla, but both bypassed running, leaving her clueless about who was running or whom to support.
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She has learned only about Steyer, who has poured millions into the contest, and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
"I'm going to be honest in saying that I have been getting a lot of conflicting messaging, even from my own party, about who I should put my vote behind," Reyes said. “Right now, it seems that the party is very much trying to find its footing on whether or not we're going for a progressive candidate or for a more moderate Democrat."
Experts say voter apathy typically occurs in California because it's a heavily Democratic state, and most voters don't pay attention until after the usually low-turnout primary.
The Berkeley survey underscored how much inattention is responsible for Democrats' lack of enthusiasm for a specific candidate. It noted that voters "remain largely disengaged and unenthusiastic," and about 16% of Californians are undecided.
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