U.S. imports surged to record heights as consumers stocked up ahead of tariffs

The U.S. imported more goods in January than in any other month since the government started tracking the data as people raced to stock up ahead of President Donald Trump’s announced tariffs.

The import surge was driven by sharp increases from the United States’ three largest trading partners, China, Canada and Mexico, according to a USA TODAY analysis of recently released U.S. Census trade data. Together, those nations provide nearly half of the foreign goods consumed in the U.S., and they are key targets of tariffs that took effect last month. More tariffs, including a 25% tariff on autos and auto parts, are scheduled to begin April 2.

“People are trying to get imports into the country before the tariffs go on,” said Marcus Noland, executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

“People were hedging their bets.”

Noland was among them. His son has a nut allergy. Anticipating a rise in the price of the Canadian-made nut-free granola he buys, Noland said he stocked up.

“I had anticipated the tariff and had already bought extra granola,” he said.

On March 6, after Canadian tariffs took effect, he received a notice from Amazon: The price of one variety he buys had spiked by more than 40%.

Decisions like Noland’s add up.

The Census Bureau calculated that the U.S. took in more than $320 billion in “imports for consumption” in January, according to USA TODAY’s analysis. That means the goods cleared customs and were ready for immediate consumption in U.S. Since the bureau began collecting the monthly data in 2002, the previous high was $295 billion in March 2022.

Before implementing tariffs last month, Trump had repeatedly announced plans to impose 25% duties on Canadian and Mexican goods while initially proposing 10% tariffs on Chinese imports before raising them to 20%.

The U.S. saw a notable increase in imports from all three countries in January 2025 compared with the year before:

• Shipments from China rebounded to $41 billion, a 16% increase compared with the value in the same month last year, despite years of trade tensions.

• January 2025 saw Canadian goods break records, climbing 15% year-over-year to $38 billion − the highest monthly total recorded since 2002.

• Imports from Mexico surged to a record $42 billion in January 2025, marking a 12% year-over-year increase.

ACM Logistics & Consulting, a Texas-based import customs broker, saw shipments from China rise 26% in January 2025 compared with the same month in 2024, said company president John Heimsath.

“That was a single-month outlier,” he said. About one-fifth of the goods the company works with come from China, he said, primarily steel and aluminum products.

Cargado, a company that helps match truck drivers and other freight carriers with loads for transport across the U.S.-Mexico border, saw freight costs spike 12% in January. 

“This can be attributed to manufacturers moving substantially more goods before the tariffs went into effect, resulting in increased trade demand and reduced capacity,” said Joey Hawilo, head of marketing at Cargado.

SEKO Logistics, a company that provides global freight forwarding services, also noted large shipping volumes and higher demand in January. Clint Dvorak, senior director of ocean operations and customs brokerage at the company, attributes the surge to two factors: this year's earlier Lunar New Year and heightened customer concerns about increased tariffs.

“Customers who could, have moved up their purchase orders to get goods into commerce ahead of proposed tariff increases,” Dvorak said in an email. “We are currently seeing it on the Europe to USA trade as well.”

In December, export data released by the Chinese government showed a similar spike in the value of goods sent to the U.S., according to USA TODAY’s analysis. Experts also linked the surge to anticipated tariff hikes, pushing traders to stock up on commodities made in China.

What comes next with tariffs

Besides tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico, the White House has rolled out sweeping new tariffs, imposing a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports while threatening a 200% tariff on European wine and 25% tariffs on auto imports.

Retaliation has begun: China placed tariffs on U.S. farm goods, Canada matched duties on American steel, and the European Union added levies on American spirits.

“Everything is an executive order, so it can be turned off as quickly as it is turned on, or doubled and tripled as quickly as they want,” said Heimsath, CEO of the logistics company. “It's very, very quick. So everyone is sort of sitting around trying to figure out what to do.”

Trump has said his aim is to encourage the return of manufacturing to the U.S.

“But,” Heimseth said, “nobody that is my client is seriously considering changing their manufacturing to the United States.”

Economists and researchers are raising alarms about using tariffs as an economic stimulus tool. In fact, research shows they could worsen economies. A Peterson Institute study models the shrink of the  U.S. gross domestic product and the rise of inflation after new tariffs on Mexico and Canada, warning of higher consumer prices and supply chain disruptions.

Said Noland, co-author of the study: “There's no winners here.”